Protocol for the OCAY study: a cohort study of orphanhood and caregiver loss in the COVID-19 era to explore the impact on children and adolescents.

INTRODUCTION: Globally, no person has been untouched by the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, little attention has been given to children and adolescents in policy, provision and services. Moreover, there is a dearth of knowledge regarding the impact of COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver loss on children. This study aims to provide early insights into the mental health and well-being of children and adolescents experiencing orphanhood or caregiver loss in South Africa. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Data will be drawn from a quantitative longitudinal study in Cape Town, South Africa. A sample of children and adolescents between the ages of 9 and 18 years, experiencing parental or caregiver loss from COVID-19, will be recruited together with a comparison group of children in similar environments who did not experience loss. The study aims to recruit 500 children in both groups. Mental health and well-being among children will be explored through the use of validated and study-specific measures. Participants will be interviewed at two time points, with follow-up data being collected 12-18 months after baseline. A combination of analytical techniques (including descriptive statistics, regression modelling and structural equation modelling) will be used to understand the experience and inform future policy and service provision. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study received ethical approval from the Health Research Ethics Committee at Stellenbosch University (N 22/04/040). Results will be disseminated via academic and policy publications, as well as national and international presentations including high-level meetings with technical experts. Findings will also be disseminated at a community level via various platforms.

Does pre-COVID impulsive behaviour predict adherence to hygiene and social distancing measures in youths following the COVID-19 pandemic onset? Evidence from a South African longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Engagement in protective behaviours relating to the COVID-19 pandemic has been proposed to be key to infection control. This is particularly the case for youths as key drivers of infections. A range of factors influencing adherence have been identified, including impulsivity and risk taking. We assessed the association between pre-COVID impulsivity levels and engagement in preventative measures during the COVID-19 pandemic in a longitudinal South African sample, in order to inform future pandemic planning. METHODS: Data were collected from N = 214 youths (mean age at baseline: M = 17.81 (SD = .71), 55.6% female) living in a South African peri-urban settlement characterised by high poverty and deprivation. Baseline assessments were taken in 2018/19 and the COVID follow-up was conducted in June-October 2020 via remote data collection. Impulsivity was assessed using the Balloon Analogue Task (BART), while hygiene and social distancing behaviours were captured through self-report. Stepwise hierarchical regression analyses were performed to estimate effects of impulsivity on measure adherence. RESULTS: Self-rated engagement in hygiene behaviours was high (67.1-86.1% "most of the time", except for "coughing/sneezing into one's elbow" at 33.3%), while engagement in social distancing behaviours varied (22.4-57.8% "most of the time"). Higher impulsivity predicted lower levels of hygiene (ß = .14, p = .041) but not social distancing behaviours (ß = -.02, p = .82). This association was retained when controlling for a range of demographic and COVID-related factors (ß = .14, p = .047) and was slightly reduced when including the effects of a life-skills interventions on hygiene behaviour (ß = -.13, p = .073). CONCLUSIONS: Our data indicate that impulsivity may predict adolescent engagement in hygiene behaviours post COVID-19 pandemic onset in a high risk, sub-Saharan African setting, albeit with a small effect size. For future pandemics, it is important to understand predictors of engagement, particularly in the context of adversity, where adherence may be challenging. Limitations include a small sample size and potential measure shortcomings.

Predictors of COVID-related changes in mental health in a South African sample of adolescents and young adults.

The COVID-19 pandemic has substantially affected the lives of young people living in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), leading to poorer short-term mental health outcomes. However, longitudinal data investigating changes in mental health from pre-COVID levels and their predictors are lacking. Our longitudinal sample comprised N = 233 young people (mean age: 17.8 years at baseline, 55.6% female) living in a deprived neighbourhood near Cape Town, South Africa. Symptoms of depression (PHQ-9), anxiety (GAD-7) and alcohol use (AUDIT) were assessed during two waves of data collection, pre-pandemic (2018/19) and via phone interviews in June to October 2020, during South Africa's first COVID wave and subsequent case decline. Latent change score models were used to investigate predictors of changes in mental health. Controlling for baseline levels, we found increases in depression and anxiety but not alcohol use symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic. Higher baseline symptoms were associated with smaller increases on all measures. Socio-economic deprivation (lack of household income, food insecurity) before and during COVID were associated with higher anxiety and depression symptom increases. Having had more positive experiences during COVID was associated with lower post-COVID onset anxiety and depression increases, and marginally with less alcohol use, while negative experiences (household arguments, worries) were linked to stronger symptom increases. Overall, in a sample of young people from an adverse environment in South Africa, we found increased mental health difficulties during the COVID-19 pandemic, though higher baseline symptoms did not necessarily predict stronger increases. Several factors pre- and post-COVID onset were identified that could be relevant for determining risk and resilience. In the long term, it will be key to address these structural drivers of well-being and to ensure mental health needs of young people are being met to support SSA countries in building back successfully from COVID-19 and preparing for future shock events.

'Tipping the balance' - an evaluation of COVID-19 parenting resources developed and adapted for child protection during global emergency responses.

Background: Parenting was severely affected by lockdown, school closure, illness, movement restrictions and the many sudden changes wrought by the global emergence of COVID-19. Responding to the need for a rapid emergency response to support parents and caregivers, a consortium of providers developed a suite of COVID-19 parenting resources based on evidence-based parenting interventions. Launched in March 2020, these were adapted for online use, with versions in over 100 languages, and the possibility for downloading, radio, and oral provision. A rapid qualitative evaluation initiative was conducted from September 2020 to February 2021 to inform the procedure, understand the impact and to drive future provision. Methods: The evaluation collected openended responses surveys (n = 495 participants) and in-depth interviews with parents, providers, and adolescent children (n = 22) from 14 countries and one global source. Data were gathered on parenting challenges during COVID-19 and the utility of the COVID-19 parenting resources. In-depth, semi-structured interviews explored the same concepts and elaborated on challenges, utility of the resources, and recommendations for the future. Data were coded in a hierarchy from basic, organising and global theme generation.Results: The parenting resources equipped parents with information and practices transforming everyday lives, and interactions. The tips provided prompts and permissions related to children's behaviour, enabled communications, and offered ways to reduce stress, monitor behaviour and navigate discipline challenges. The timeliness of the resources as well as the clarity and ease of use were seen as advantages. Future direction and possible hurdles related to adaptations needed according to recipient, child age, local context, culture, and new challenges. Conclusions: Overall findings point to the value and utility of this unprecedented global response to theCOVID-19 pandemic. Results suggest that rapid provision of parenting resources at scale is feasible and of use and opens a pathway for providing evidence-based interventions under COVID-19 constraints.

From surviving to thriving: integrating mental health care into HIV, community, and family services for adolescents living with HIV.

Adolescents are a crucial generation, with the potential to bring future social and economic success for themselves and their countries. More than 90% of adolescents living with HIV reside in sub-Saharan Africa, where their mental health is set against a background of poverty, familial stress, service gaps, and an HIV epidemic that is now intertwined with the COVID-19 pandemic. In this Series paper, we review systematic reviews, randomised trials, and cohort studies of adolescents living with and affected by HIV. We provide a detailed overview of mental health provision and collate evidence for future approaches. We find that the mental health burden for adolescents living with HIV is high, contributing to low quality of life and challenges with adherence to antiretroviral therapy. Mental health provision is scarce, infrastructure and skilled providers are missing, and leadership is needed. Evidence of effective interventions is emerging, including specific provisions for mental health (eg, cognitive behavioural therapy, problem-solving, mindfulness, and parenting programmes) and broader provisions to prevent drivers of poor mental health (eg, social protection and violence prevention). We provide evidence of longitudinal associations between unconditional government grants and improved mental health. Combinations of economic and social interventions (known as cash plus care) could increase mental health benefits. Scalable delivery models include task sharing, primary care integration, strengthening families, and a pyramid of provision that differentiates between levels of need, from prevention to the care of severe disorders. A turning point has now been reached, from which complacency cannot persist. We conclude that there is substantial need, available frameworks, and a growing evidence base for action while infrastructure and skill acquisition is built.

Global, regional, and national minimum estimates of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death, by age and family circumstance up to Oct 31, 2021: an updated modelling study.

BACKGROUND: In the 6 months following our estimates from March 1, 2020, to April 30, 2021, the proliferation of new coronavirus variants, updated mortality data, and disparities in vaccine access increased the amount of children experiencing COVID-19-associated orphanhood. To inform responses, we aimed to model the increases in numbers of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death, as well as the cumulative orphanhood age-group distribution and circumstance (maternal or paternal orphanhood). METHODS: We used updated excess mortality and fertility data to model increases in minimum estimates of COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver deaths from our original study period of March 1, 2020-April 30, 2021, to include the new period of May 1-Oct 31, 2021, for 21 countries. Orphanhood was defined as the death of one or both parents; primary caregiver loss included parental death or the death of one or both custodial grandparents; and secondary caregiver loss included co-residing grandparents or kin. We used logistic regression and further incorporated a fixed effect for western European countries into our previous model to avoid over-predicting caregiver loss in that region. For the entire 20-month period, we grouped children by age (0-4 years, 5-9 years, and 10-17 years) and maternal or paternal orphanhood, using fertility contributions, and we modelled global and regional extrapolations of numbers of orphans. 95% credible intervals (CrIs) are given for all estimates. FINDINGS: The number of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death is estimated to have increased by 90·0% (95% CrI 89·7-90·4) from April 30 to Oct 31, 2021, from 2 737 300 (95% CrI 1 976 100-2 987 000) to 5 200 300 (3 619 400-5 731 400). Between March 1, 2020, and Oct 31, 2021, 491 300 (95% CrI 485 100-497 900) children aged 0-4 years, 736 800 (726 900-746 500) children aged 5-9 years, and 2 146 700 (2 120 900-2 174 200) children aged 10-17 years are estimated to have experienced COVID-19-associated orphanhood. Globally, 76·5% (95% CrI 76·3-76·7) of children were paternal orphans, whereas 23·5% (23·3-23·7) were maternal orphans. In each age group and region, the prevalence of paternal orphanhood exceeded that of maternal orphanhood. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show that numbers of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death almost doubled in 6 months compared with the amount after the first 14 months of the pandemic. Over the entire 20-month period, 5·0 million COVID-19 deaths meant that 5·2 million children lost a parent or caregiver. Our data on children's ages and circumstances should support pandemic response planning for children globally. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation (Global Challenges Research Fund, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, and Medical Research Council), Oak Foundation, UK National Institute for Health Research, US National Institutes of Health, and Imperial College London.

Ethnic inequalities in mental health and socioeconomic status among older women living with HIV: results from the PRIME Study.

OBJECTIVES: Women living with HIV in the UK are an ethnically diverse group with significant psychosocial challenges. Increasing numbers are reaching older age. We describe psychological and socioeconomic factors among women with HIV in England aged 45-60 and explore associations with ethnicity. METHODS: Analysis of cross-sectional data on 724 women recruited to the PRIME Study. Psychological symptoms were measured using the Patient Health Questionnaire 4 and social isolation with a modified Duke-UNC Functional Social Support Scale. RESULTS: Black African (BA) women were more likely than Black Caribbean or White British (WB) women to have a university education (48.3%, 27.0%, 25.7%, respectively, p<0.001), but were not more likely to be employed (68.4%, 61.4%, 65.2%, p=0.56) and were less likely to have enough money to meet their basic needs (56.4%, 63.0%, 82.9%, p<0.001). BA women were less likely to report being diagnosed with depression than WB women (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.40, p<0.001) but more likely to report current psychological distress (aOR 3.34, p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: We report high levels of poverty, psychological distress and social isolation in this ethnically diverse group of midlife women with HIV, especially among those who were BA. Despite being more likely to experience psychological distress, BA women were less likely to have been diagnosed with depression suggesting a possible inequity in access to mental health services. Holistic HIV care requires awareness of the psychosocial needs of older women living with HIV, which may be more pronounced in racially minoritised communities, and prompt referral for support including psychology, peer support and advice about benefits.

Global minimum estimates of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and deaths of caregivers: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic priorities have focused on prevention, detection, and response. Beyond morbidity and mortality, pandemics carry secondary impacts, such as children orphaned or bereft of their caregivers. Such children often face adverse consequences, including poverty, abuse, and institutionalisation. We provide estimates for the magnitude of this problem resulting from COVID-19 and describe the need for resource allocation. METHODS: We used mortality and fertility data to model minimum estimates and rates of COVID-19-associated deaths of primary or secondary caregivers for children younger than 18 years in 21 countries. We considered parents and custodial grandparents as primary caregivers, and co-residing grandparents or older kin (aged 60-84 years) as secondary caregivers. To avoid overcounting, we adjusted for possible clustering of deaths using an estimated secondary attack rate and age-specific infection-fatality ratios for SARS-CoV-2. We used these estimates to model global extrapolations for the number of children who have experienced COVID-19-associated deaths of primary and secondary caregivers. FINDINGS: Globally, from March 1, 2020, to April 30, 2021, we estimate 1 134 000 children (95% credible interval 884 000-1 185 000) experienced the death of primary caregivers, including at least one parent or custodial grandparent. 1 562 000 children (1 299 000-1 683 000) experienced the death of at least one primary or secondary caregiver. Countries in our study set with primary caregiver death rates of at least one per 1000 children included Peru (10·2 per 1000 children), South Africa (5·1), Mexico (3·5), Brazil (2·4), Colombia (2·3), Iran (1·7), the USA (1·5), Argentina (1·1), and Russia (1·0). Numbers of children orphaned exceeded numbers of deaths among those aged 15-50 years. Between two and five times more children had deceased fathers than deceased mothers. INTERPRETATION: Orphanhood and caregiver deaths are a hidden pandemic resulting from COVID-19-associated deaths. Accelerating equitable vaccine delivery is key to prevention. Psychosocial and economic support can help families to nurture children bereft of caregivers and help to ensure that institutionalisation is avoided. These data show the need for an additional pillar of our response: prevent, detect, respond, and care for children. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation (Global Challenges Research Fund, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Medical Research Council), UK National Institute for Health Research, US National Institutes of Health, and Imperial College London.